click here Nifty Overall Analysis
10630 – 10600 zone acted as a strong resistance as we discussed on our previous blog. Nifty opened gap up with respect to the global cues and made an intraday high of 10630.65. However the bears were aggressive today and dragged the index from the high point of the day, made an intraday low 10537.95 and closed at 10554.30. Technically, Index closed near the 50 EMA today and the 50 SMA will be a strong resistance for the index coming days. Close above 10630 levels will be super bullish and above 10630 bulls will be having the upper hand.
Currently the markets are consolidating after the 3 days Bull Run. Today’s price action in the daily chart indicates that the bears were in total control. Nifty is making higher high higher low formation for the last few trading sessions. FII’s are selling continuously in the cash market and they have sold shares worth of 906Cr today. However on contra they are adding some long positions in the index derivatives.
Nifty Energy, Nifty FMCG & Nifty IT sectors ended in green and Nifty PSU Banks, Nifty Realty & Nifty Bank sectors ended in red today. PSU banking stocks are continuously under selling pressure. BHARTIARTL, DRREDDY & RELIANCE were the major gainers and AMBUJACEM, SBIN & AXISBANK were the major losers. In the NSE stocks, Advance decline was in total favor for the bears, 491 stocks advanced and 1007 stocks declined. 14 stocks made 52 week high and 34 stocks 52 week low as well.
source Nifty Derivative Analysis
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FII’s bought 8592 long index futures and covered 38 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is 11602 (Long positions).
Pro’s bought 918 long index futures and added 3609 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is 1041 (Short positions).
FII’s bought 4418 long call options and added 873 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 104228.
FII’s bought 11796 long put options and added 3675 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 172585. (Every month FII’s buy around 2lakh put contracts for portfolio hedging)
PRO’s sold 1514 long call options and added 31994 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -109962.
PRO’s bought 13566 long put options and covered 2003 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -44374.
Put call ratio for the current series is 1.06. PCR above 1.10 is bullish
India VIX closed today at 13.92 VIX above 13 is bit cautious.
10700CE is having the highest OI in the call side and 10700 will act as resistance.
10400PE is having the highest OI in the put side and 10390 will act as support.
FII’s have added 8.5k long index futures and bought 4K index call options. However the PRO’s have shorted the index call options by 31K contracts and bought 13K long put options. Currently PRO’s net position in the index futures is short by 1041 contracts and index options by 65K contracts.
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FII’s have added 10K long stock futures. Long build up was in RAMCOCEM, CHOLAFIN & KAJARIACER and short built up was seen in PNB, AMBUJACEM & CEATLTD.
10630-10600 Zone will be a strong resistance and if index close above 10630 levels then chances are index will test 10720/10900.
10300 – 10270 will be a strong support and if index close below the levels then chances are index will test the 200DMA/10030 Previous Swing low.
Nifty closed below the 50 EMA today and is trading below all the short term moving averages.
MACD still gives a sell signal. MACD getting is ready for a bullish crossover.
RSI is in no trade zone.
Nifty is facing strong resistance around the 50 SMA which is placed around the 10623. Current market sentiment is bullish and best strategy for time being is buying on dips. 10630-10600 Zone will be a strong resistance for the next few sessions and if index close above 10630 levels then chances are index will test 10720/10900 levels. 10300 – 10270 will be a strong support and if index close below these levels then chances are index will test the 200DMA/10030 Previous Swing low. Wait for close above the mentioned levels for further trend confirmation.
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