Nifty Overall Analysis
Volatility is back in the Dalal Street! Today we saw wild swings on the both sides. During these types of days usually the bulls and bears get trapped. Most of the global indices ended in red today. Coming days global markets will give direction to our market since this is a global correction. Nifty formed “ Hanging man” pattern on the daily chart. Hanging man is a bearish pattern forms during the end of an uptrend. So coming days price action will be very crucial to validate the pattern. Index opened gap down, hit an intraday low of 10337 then pulled back sharply and managed to close above 10400.
Technically, Nifty close above the 20 SMA which looks good for the bulls. Bank nifty is the backbone for Nifty and Bank nifty looks weak after the recent banking scams. However, today Nifty bank managed to close above the 200 DMA. Also PSU banking stocks witnessed some buying interest. We have mentioned about our positive stand on PSU banks on our previous blog.
FII’s sold shares worth of 258Cr and DII’s sold shares worth of 432Cr in the cash market. DII’s selling is a concern for the bulls.
Nifty PSU Bank & Nifty Media sectors ended with positive note and Nifty Energy & Nifty Metal sectors ended with negative note. TECHM, AMBUJACEM & BAJFINANCE were the major gainers and IOC, INFRATEL & HINDPETRO were the major losers among the heavyweights. In the overall NSE stocks, Advance decline was in favor of bears, 720 stocks advanced and 762 stocks declined. 13 stocks made 52 week high and 47 stocks 52 week low as well.
Nifty Derivative Analysis
- enter Futures
FII’s bought 5877 long index futures and added 9041 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is click 18584 (Long positions).
Pro’s bought 2001 long index futures and covered http://alma-de-cuba.com/galleries/halloween-cirque-du-slay-2013/img_9751/ 1620 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is 5233 (Short positions).
FII’s bought long 7687 call options and added 1958 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 113950.
FII’s bought 5402 long put options and covered 879 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 199370. (Every month FII’s buy around 2lakh put contracts for portfolio hedging)
PRO’s bought 10571 long call options and added 10046 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -141601.
PRO’s bought 11621 long put options and added 21866 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -96653.
Put call ratio for the current series is 1.02
India VIX closed today at 14.36 VIX above 13 is bit cautious.
10500CE is having the highest OI in the call side.
10000PE is having the highest OI in the put side.
Today we saw fresh call writing in 10400CE more than 9lakh OI added today. 10400 CE & 10400 PE is having almost same amount of OI that’s why the markets are range bounding for the last few sessions.
- Stock Futures
Nifty Technical Analysis
10630-10600 Zone will be a strong resistance and if index close above 10630 levels then chances are index will test 10900 levels soon.
Nifty closed above the 20 SMA. 100 SMA will be the near term resistance followed by 50 DMA.
10140-10100 zone acted as near term bottom and break below can trigger further selling pressure.
MACD is getting ready for a bullish crossover.
RSI is in no trade zone.
Nifty is facing strong resistance at the higher levels. Bears are aggressive than the bulls from the last few sessions. DII’s selling is a serious concern because DII’s supported our markets during the last selloff. Tomorrow its Bank Nifty expiry so we can expect some volatility. US market is in the verge of a breakout and that will decide the direction for our market for coming days. This is a global correction and we have to watch the major indices carefully.
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