Nifty Daily Analysis as on 12/3/2018 – Futures & Options Derivative Analysis (Read More)

Nifty Overall Analysis

What an exciting day for the bulls! Nifty closed with almost 2% gain intraday. Major players have exited some short positions in the index derivatives and we saw some good amount of delivery based buying in the index heavyweight stocks. We have discussed about this rally yesterday and our regular readers have benefited it. 10630 will be the major hurdle to cross and close above 10630 nifty will be super bullish. Till then we have to be bit cautious! Technically, Nifty closed above the 20 SMA today and the 100 SMA will be the near term resistance.

On the candlestick chart index is making higher high higher low formation for the last three days which looks good for the bulls. Nifty formed a strong bullish candle and day’s candle indicates that the bulls were in total control. Opening price remained the low for the day and index closed near the all time high. FII’s were net buyers in the cash market and they bought share worth of 374Cr intraday and DII’s were net sellers last few days. FII’s buying for the last few sessions boosted the street sentiment.

Other than PSU stocks all the major indices ended with a positive note. Nifty FMCG, Nifty Energy & Nifty Metal lead the rally today. BHARTIARTL, IOC & ITC were the major gainers and COALIND, AUROPHARMA & TECHM were the major losers. In the NSE stocks, Advance decline was in favor of bulls, 841 stocks advanced and 658 stocks declined. 7 stocks made 52 week high and 129 stocks 52 week low as well.

Nifty Derivative Analysis

FII’s bought source 21413 long index futures and covered follow site 9551 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is 24127 (Long positions).

Pro’s bought 1948 long index futures and added 1503 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is 17069 (Short positions).

  • Options

FII’s bought long 13701 call options and covered 826 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 111318.

FII’s sold 3562 long put options and added 12323 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 202987. (Every month FII’s buy around 2lakh put contracts for portfolio hedging)

PRO’s bought 27163 long call options and covered 23196 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -118020.

PRO’s bought 13334 long put options and added 63574 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -104889.

Put call ratio for the current series is 1

India VIX closed today at 14.49 VIX above 13 is bit cautious.

10600CE is having the highest OI in the call side.

10000PE is having the highest OI in the put side.

FII’s have exited 9.5K short positions and bought 21K long contracts in the index futures. FII’s long to short ratio turned positive today. (FII’s are now long in Index futures)  PRO’s added 100K long positions in the Index options today. PRO’s are now short in the Index options by 13K contracts only.  Today we saw good amount of put writing in 10400 & 10300 strikes. 10500 CE saw some short covering and OI resistance shifted to 10600 from 10500 CE.

  • Stock Futures

 

Nifty Technical Analysis

10630-10600 Zone will be a strong resistance and if index close above 10630 levels then chances are index will test 10900 levels soon.

Nifty closed above the 20 SMA today and 100 SMA will be the near term resistance.

10140-10100 zone acted as near term bottom and break below can trigger further selling pressure.

MACD gives a sell signal.

RSI looks oversold.

Nifty Outlook

Nifty will face slight resistance around the 100 SMA. 100 SMA acted as strong support many occasions during ongoing rally. When the support breaks, it will act as resistance. Traders are advised to take profits at regular intervals. Markets can be highly volatile this year and we can expect sharp movements on both sides. So it’s better to trade breakouts rather than buying dips/selling on rally.

 

 


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