Nifty Daily Analysis as on 05/3/2018 – Futures & Options Derivative Analysis (Read More)

http://aspenlogandbeetlekillpinefurniture.com/kronos-homepage/ Nifty Overall Analysis

10300 -10276 zones will be very crucial for the bulls and as long as index is trading above the zone the best strategy is to buy on the dips. Chances are nifty will range bound between 10600-10300 before it either breakout or breakdown from the range. Defensive traders have to wait for close above/below the mentioned levels.Technically, Index closed below the 100 DMA today and if index is able to capture the 100 DMA then the bulls will be having upper hand.

Nifty is making lower high lower low formation for the 3 trading sessions and today’s price action indicates that the bears were in total control. However index got at 10324 intraday and pulled back smartly which indicates that some short positions were covered today.Above 10430 we can expect further short covering and short covering rally can take nifty up to 10610 levels.FII’s sold shares worth of 366Cr and DII’s sold shares worth of 154Cr in the cash market.

Today except Nifty IT & Nifty PSU Banks all the other sectors ended in red. Nifty Metal & Nifty Energy sectors saw good amount of profit booking today in back of Trump’s trade war. TECHM, SUNPHARMA & TCS were the major gainers and TATAMOTORS, HINDALCO & AUROPHARMA were the major losers. In the NSE stocks, Advance decline was in total favor for the bears, 274 stocks advanced and 1232 stocks declined. 11 stocks made 52 week high and 60 stocks 52 week low as well.

Nifty Derivative Analysis

FII’s sold 5488 long index futures and added 13183 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is how to buy accutane 20411 (Short positions).

Pro’s bought 31 long index futures and added 1471 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is 7549 (Short positions).

  • Options

FII’s bought 12721 long call options and added 8873 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 119712.

FII’s bought 13451 long put options and covered 669 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 188812. (Every month FII’s buy around 2lakh put contracts for portfolio hedging)

PRO’s bought 9851 long call options and added 35750 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -161027.

PRO’s bought 8069 long put options and added 15740 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -20934.

Put call ratio for the current series is 0.87.

India VIX closed today at 15.39 VIX above 13 is bit cautious.

10700CE is having the highest OI in the call side and 10700 will act as resistance.

10400PE is having the highest OI in the put side and 10390 will act as support.

Major players are currently short in the index derivatives and we need a meaningful short covering coming days. FII’s are short in the Index futures by 20K contracts and PRO’s are short in the Index options by 140K contracts as well. However the FII’s are still holding 119K long call contracts which is very higher comparing to last series. We would need a meaningful short covering to take nifty to higher levels. More than 2lakh OI added to the 10400 CE today and 10400 will be a resistance for tomorrow.

  • Stock Futures

Long build up was seen in MINDTREE & BEML and short built up was seen in PEL & NMDC.

Nifty Technical Analysis

10630-10600 Zone will be a strong resistance and if index close above 10630 levels then chances are index will test 10720/10900.

10300 – 10270 will be a strong support and if index close below the levels then chances are index will test the 200DMA/10030 Previous Swing low.

 Nifty closed below the 100 EMA today and is trading below all the short term moving averages.

MACD gives a sell signal.

RSI is in no trade zone.

Nifty Outlook

As we discussed yesterday we bought the index future on the dip and still holding the long position with a proper hedging strategy. However the 100 DMA will act as short term resistance and we need a close above the 100 DMA for further up move. Above the 10450 those who are holding long positions can add further positions with 10600 as near term target. However below 10300 levels long positions should be exited and do not try to average. Always hedge your overnight positions properly since currently the global indices are giving directions for our markets and we can expect gap up/gap downs.

 

 


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