http://mo-pie.com/?page_name=dicloreum Nifty Overall Analysis
Today it was the Nifty derivative monthly contract’s expiry and volatility was less compared to previous expiries. It was the perfect day for executing a ‘short strangle’ strategy and we have discussed about this in our previous blog. Nifty opened gap down intraday with respect to the weak global cues, however index defended the opening 15Mints low throughout the session and closed finally with a positive note. 10300-10340 zones look like a strong support zone and index got support here last few trading sessions. 100 DMA will be the near term hurdle and close above 10430-10450 zones looks bullish for the near term. 10630-10600 will be a strong resistance further and close above the mentioned levels we can expect for trend reversal.
FII’s sold shares worth of 2335Cr and DII’s bought shares worth of 1059Cr in the cash markets. FII’s and PRO’s together have exited huge amount of short positions in the index derivatives by this Feb expiry. Too many shorts were eliminated from the system and tomorrow it’s the fresh start of the March series so we can expect some movements in the nifty. India VIX eases 6.83% and closed at 14.83% intraday. Crude oil data inventory came late night and the inventory was far below the forecast. This results in increase in the crude oil prices in international markets.
Nifty IT, Nifty Realty & Nifty Pharma sectors ended in green and Nifty Energy, Nifty Media & Nifty MNC ended in red today. SUNPHARMA, AUROPHARMA & ADANIPORTS were the major gainers and ONGC, EICHERMOT & DRREDDY were the major losers. In the NSE stocks, Advance decline was in favor for the bears, 474 stocks advanced and 1000 stocks declined. 4 stocks made 52 week high and 56 stocks 52 week low as well.
http://oceanadesigns.net/envira/black-levanto/ Nifty Derivative Analysis
FII’s sold 54526 long index futures and covered 97805 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is 1588 (Short positions).
Pro’s sold 8399 long index futures and covered 19940 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is 965 (Long positions).
FII’s sold 97300 long call options and covered 125859 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 62793.
FII’s sold 197886 long put options and covered 86338 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 132672.
PRO’s sold 71960 long call options and covered 267976 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -49786.
PRO’s sold 62789 long put options and added 165194 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -6907.
Put call ratio for the current series is 0.99.
India VIX closed today at 14.83 VIX above 13 is bit cautious. VIX cooled 6.83% intraday.
We saw good amount of short positions exited from the system. Current positions looks like FII’s are neutral and PRO’s have 56K shorts in index options. Tomorrow it’s the fresh start and we would need further data to reach a conclusion.
Nifty Technical Analysis
Close above the 10430-10450 levels will be bullish and close below 10300 – 10270 will be bearish for near term. Our long term trend is still bullish as long as we are holding to our previous swing low 10030.
Nifty closed near the 100 DMA and currently it is trading below the short term moving averages.
MACD still gives a sell signal.
RSI and Stochastic indicators show nifty is oversold currently.
Tomorrow it’s the fresh start for the March series and we can expect big movements for the next few sessions. Short term we can expect some relief rallies however to confirm the uptrend index needs to close above the 10630 levels. Also we have to analyze whether the major players are still adding short positions for the new series or not? FII selling is the worrisome for the near term; they are selling in the cash markets on every rally. The domestic inflows are supporting our markets at the lower levels. Nifty bank looks weak and without the support of the Nifty cant resume the uptrend. IT stocks have supported the index for last few sessions in back of weak rupee. At current levels it’s better to be stock specific rather than betting in the index.
Disclaimer: This site has been designed for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security which may be referenced upon the site. The services and information provided through this site are for personal, non-commercial, educational use and display. www.niftyjournal.com does not provide investment advice through this site and does not represent that the securities or services discussed are suitable for any investor. Investors are advised not to rely on any information contained in the site in the process of making a fully informed investment decision.