Nifty Daily Analysis as on 16/02/2018 – Futures & Options Derivative Analysis (Read More)

click here Nifty Overall Analysis

PNB scam changed the market sentiment and currently the trend looks like “sell on rally”. Further developments of the scam will decide the market direction for the coming days. Incidents like this will spoil investor’s confidence in our markets. FII’s are selling aggressively in the cash markets and DII’s are supporting the markets for the current month. Nifty is facing stiff resistance around the 50EMA and strong support is placed at 100EMA.

Between 10600 and 10400 index will be range bound and traders are advised to wait for a breakout or break down for further direction. Global markets are giving directions for our markets and currently global indices are showing some strength.  Friday’s daily candle indicates the bears were in control and nifty closed near the low point of the day.

All the major sectors ended in red and Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Metal & Nifty Media lost more intraday. AMBUJACEM, KOTAKBANK & INFY were the major gainers and EICHERMOT, IBULHSGFIN & TECHM were the major losers. In the NSE stocks, Advance decline was in total favor for the bears, 253 stocks advanced and 1254 stocks declined. 9 stocks made 52 week high and 28 stocks 52 week low as well.

buy modafinil malaysia Nifty Derivative Analysis

FII’s bought 1342 long index futures and added 2445 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is 18799 (Short positions).

Pro’s bought 6949 long index futures and added 706 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is 10550 (Short positions).

  • Options

FII’s bought 10346 long call options and added 5187 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 72234.

FII’s bought 6172 long put options and covered 316 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 265414.

PRO’s bought 6739 long call options and added 47635 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -244641.

PRO’s bought 22200 long put options and covered 4891 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -62472.

Put call ratio for the current series is 0.83 PCR below .90 is bearish.

India VIX closed today at 16.37 VIX above 13 is bit cautious.

10600CE is currently having the highest OI’s, so it will act as resistances for the February expiry.

10500PE is currently having the highest OI, so it will act as support for the February expiry.

Today we saw massive call writing in 10600CE & 10500CE strikes and more than 32lakh OI added intraday. Good amount of put unwinding happened in the 10500PE strike. 10600 will a strong resistance for the current series and currently every rise in the market is used to add short positions by the major players. PRO’s and FII’s together have 375K short positions in the index options and 27K short positions in the index futures.

Nifty Technical Analysis

Index got strong support at the 100 EMA and during the last 3 corrections also nifty got support at the 100EMA. If nifty breaches the 100EMA then the near term support will the 200EMA and this move will be sharper. Currently, Nifty is facing stiff resistance above the 50 EMA. If nifty is able to close above 10600 levels on closing basis we can expect a short covering rally.

MACD still gives a sell signal.

RSI and Stochastic indicators show nifty is oversold currently.

Nifty Outlook

Between 10600 and 10400 index is in no trade zone. Index needs either to break out or break down for the further move. Further developments in the PNB scam will decide the market direction for the coming days. PRO’s and FII’s together have 375K short positions in the index options and 27K short positions in the index futures. Most of the short positions are added in current month derivative contracts and by the mid of this week we can expect a short covering rally in our markets. For current series 10500PE is having the highest OI in the put side and if further unwinding in the 10500PE happens, chances are index will test the 100EMA/Recent low. On the upside 10600 will be a strong resistance for current month.

 

 


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