Nifty Daily Analysis as on 15/02/2018 – Futures & Options Derivative Analysis (Read More)

neurontin side effects Nifty Overall Analysis

Nifty is facing stiff resistance above the 50 EMA as we discussed on our previous blogs. If nifty is able to close above 10610 levels we can expect a near term target of 10670. Above 10670 bulls will be stronger and we can a short covering rally. Index formed a Doji candle on the daily chart and Doji pattern indicates indecisiveness among the bulls and the bears.

Today it was the bank nifty weekly options expiry and 100k short positions in the index options covered today. FII’s selling in the cash market came down last few sessions and also they have started to cover shorts in the index futures. India VIX is also cooling down for the last few sessions. Global markets started to show some strength and falling crude oil prices can boost the sentiments in our markets as well.

Nifty Metal, Nifty  Energy  & Nifty Financial Services sectors supported the index intraday and Nifty Media, Nifty PSU Bank & Nifty Realty sectors saw some profit booking. BPCL, HINDALCO & ICICIBANK were the major gainers and IBULHSGFIN, AUROPHARMA & CIPLA were the major losers. In the NSE stocks, Advance decline was in total favor for the bears, 365 stocks advanced and 1149 stocks declined. 24 stocks made 52 week high and 23 stocks 52 week low as well.

here Nifty Derivative Analysis

FII’s bought 2584 long index futures and covered 4154 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is 17696 (Short positions).

Pro’s sold 4840 long index futures and added 3041 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is 16793 (Short positions).

  • Options

FII’s bought 5019 long call options and covered 19367 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 67075.

FII’s sold 5562 long put options and added 5133 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 258926.

PRO’s sold 7963 long call options and covered 61238 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -203745.

PRO’s sold 10458 long put options and covered 4268 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -89563.

Put call ratio for the current series is 0.92 PCR between .90 and 1.10 is neutral

India VIX closed today at 16.31 VIX above 13 is bit cautious. VIX is cooling for the last few sessions.

11000CE is currently having the highest OI’s, so it will act as resistances for the February expiry.

10500PE is currently having the highest OI, so it will act as support for the February expiry.

FII’s have started covering short index future and adding some long index future positions for the last 2 sessions. More than 100K short options in the index weekly options got covered today by the both participants. OI in the 10500 strike put options is building up and 10500 will be a strong support for this expiry.

Nifty Technical Analysis

Index got support at the 100 EMA. During last 3 recent corrections nifty got support near the 100 day moving averages. Currently Nifty is facing stiff resistance above the 50 EMA. If nifty is able to close above 10610 levels we can expect a near term target of 10670. Above 10670 bulls will be stronger and we can expect a massive short covering rally.

MACD still gives a sell signal.

RSI and Stochastic indicators show nifty is oversold currently.

Nifty Outlook

Between 10610 and 10410 index is in no trade zone. Index needs to either break out or break down for the further move. Today we saw short covering of 100k contracts in the weekly options and still there are some short positions in the index derivatives. Above 10670 we can expect massive short covering rally and this rally will be fast. Tomorrow it’s the start of a new weekly options contract and if global markets supports we can expect the breakout by tomorrow. India VIX has also cooled continuously for the last few sessions.

 

 


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