Nifty Overall Analysis
Nifty looks like bottoming out at current levels and chances are we can expect a relief rally coming days. To confirm this as a trend reversal, index needs to close above 10440 level followed by 10630 level coming weeks. Technically, Nifty got support around the 200 DMA and as long index is trading above the previous swing low 10033 we can expect trend reversal. Recent low 10141 will a pivotal point coming week. Bear are unable to break the low made on last Thursday. On candlestick chart index is making higher high higher low formation for the last two days which looks good for the bulls. However days candle indicates that the bears were in total control.
Current market sentiment is “sell on rally” and traders are adding short positions on every small rally. There are many trapped bulls at the higher levels and they will use coming rally to exit their long positions. FII’s were net buyers in the cash and they bought share worth of 550Cr in cash market intraday. Last month FII’s pulled 18619Cr from our market and this is the fourth largest monthly selloff after 2008. This month FII’s stand looks neutral in cash market.
Nifty IT, Nifty Media & Nifty FMCG show some buying interest intraday and all the other major sectors show some amount of profit booking. TECHM, BAJFINANCE & TCS were the major gainers and TATASTEEL, AXISBANK & ADANIPORTS were the major losers. In the NSE stocks, Advance decline was in favor of bears, 562 stocks advanced and 939 stocks declined. 6 stocks made 52 week high and 103 stocks 52 week low as well.
Nifty Derivative Analysis
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FII’s bought 634 long index futures and covered 2178 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is http://allstar-perfect.com/category/articles/ 6837 (Short positions).
Pro’s sold 895 long index futures and added 3063 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is source url 17514 (Short positions).
FII’s bought 6982 long call options and added 11983 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 96791.
FII’s bought 10709 long put options and added 5863 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 218872. (Every month FII’s buy around 2lakh put contracts for portfolio hedging)
PRO’s bought 8364 long call options and added 13732 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -168379.
PRO’s bought 4172 long put options and added 14179 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -54649.
Put call ratio for the current series is 0.85
India VIX closed today at 14.52 VIX above 13 is bit cautious.
10500CE is having the highest OI in the call side.
10000PE is having the highest OI in the put side.
10000PE is having highest OI followed by 10200. Looks like nifty is bottoming out at current levels, major players have started writing put options at these strikes.
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Nifty Technical Analysis
10650-10600 Zone will be a strong resistance and if index close above 10650 levels then chances are index will test 10900 levels.
Nifty closed above the 200 DMA and it is currently trading below all the major moving averages. 200 DMA will be a strong support coming days.
10030-10000 zone will be a strong support and break below can trigger heavy selling pressure and a major trend reversal that will last for few months.
MACD gives a sell signal.
RSI is in no trade zone.
Our outlook is bit contra at the current levels. We expect index to test 10600 levels this series with all the negativities. Most people are bearish currently and markets will always run against the crowd. Couple of bullish candles can change the street sentiment. If markets starts to move upwards then we expect short covering rally since most of the traders are short in the market.
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