Nifty Overall Analysis
Bears took control over D-Street, and the Nifty closed below our support zone 10300-10270. As Nifty breaking the support levels we can expect further down move and the 200-DMA/10030 might provide the next level of market support. Nifty is currently 1.2% above the 200-DMA level.
The anti-fraud agency, Serious Fraud Investigation Office summoned the chiefs of ICICI Bank and AXIS Bank in the Punjab National Bank fraud case today. As a result of the news banking the bears took the control and pulled down the market. On the candlesticks chart nifty negated the lower high lower low formation. However nifty made a fresh low in 2018 and all the gains made during 2018 wiped out. Days candle indicates that the bears were in total control today.
FII’s bought shares worth of 620Cr and DII’s sold shares worth of 734Cr in the cash market. Traders should be very cautious on these levels, as we always say any positions in futures markets should be perfectly hedged.
All the major sectors ended in red other than Nifty Media. Nifty PSU Banks & Nifty realty sectors saw more profit booking. BPCL, ULTRCEMCO & INDUSINDBANK were the major gainers and SUNPHARMA, ICICIBANK & SBIN were the major losers. In the NSE stocks, Advance decline was in total favor for the bears, 255 stocks advanced and 1242 stocks declined. 7 stocks made 52 week high and 97 stocks 52 week low as well.
Nifty Derivative Analysis
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FII’s bought 7241 long index futures and added 2655 short Index futures position. FII’s Net Index futures position is here 15825 (Short positions).
Pro’s bought 1643 long index futures and added 5776 short index futures position. Pro’s Net Index futures position is source 11682 (Short positions).
FII’s bought 9021 long call options and added 12919 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are 115814.
FII’s bought 16635 long put options and added 723 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are 204724. (Every month FII’s buy around 2lakh put contracts for portfolio hedging)
PRO’s bought 14440 long call options and added 48182 short call options. Net call option positions in the index are -194769.
PRO’s bought 4279 long put options and covered 139 short put options. Net put option positions in the index are -16516.
Put call ratio for the current series is 0.80
India VIX closed today at 16.24 VIX above 13 is bit cautious.
10500CE is having the highest OI in the call side.
10000PE is having the highest OI in the put side.
Major players are currently short in the index derivatives, so we need a meaningful short covering coming days to take nifty to higher levels. PRO’S are short in the index options by 178K contracts and FII’s are short in the Index options by 88K and Index futures by 11K as well. PRO’s have added 48K short call options today itself.
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Nifty Technical Analysis
10630-10600 Zone will be a strong resistance and if index close above 10630 levels then chances are index will test 10720/10900.
Index closed below 10276 levels, now chances are index will test the 200DMA/10030 Previous Swing low.
Nifty closed below the 100 EMA today and is trading below all the short term moving averages.
MACD gives a sell signal.
RSI is in no trade zone.
Nifty opened gap up with respect to the global cues however the banking news pulled the index down. From morning itself the markets were facing strong resistance to cross the 100 DMA. By afternoon session bears become aggressive, stop losses got triggered and long positions exited. As soon as the market reverses we have exited the long positions and added some short positions for intraday. A smart trader should always trade in both directions of the market. There is some weaknesses in the market and we would need the coming days price action to confirm whether this is the bottom or not.
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